Conservatives, moderate Republicans, and Independents are currently engaged in a fierce and bitter fight over who will represent the GOP in the presidential election.

While there are obviously many issues that are being debated ranging from Obamacare to the economy to foreign policy, at the end of the day, the most important quality for a GOP candidate is the ability to beat Hillary Clinton in November.  Everything else is insignificant if you can’t make that happen.

According to the polls (and yes, polls can be unreliable) there is one candidate in the race with a great shot at beating Hillary, one with a good shot, and one who appears to be in trouble.

First, according to the Real Clear Politics average, here is how Ohio Governor John Kasich fares against Hillary.


As you can see, Kasich performs very well against Hillary.  However, the chances of him securing the nomination at this point are slim to none.  For all practical purposes, he is not a factor in this race despite his long list of accomplishments and record of getting things done.

How does Senator Ted Cruz do against Hillary?


Not as strong as Kasich but Cruz is basically tied with Hillary in a race that could go either way and you would think that a few months of ads against Clinton would go a long way to push these numbers further in Ted’s direction.

Now for the front runner and presumptive nominee Donald Trump.


Not good.

There are people out there who say that polls don’t mean anything and that a lot can change between now and then.  It is of course true that polls have been unreliable in the past but the Trump/Clinton match up data is pretty significant even if the polls are off by 5 or 6 points.

Polls are wrong a lot.  But they are also right a lot. Sometimes remarkably so.

A lot can happen between now and November and Trump hasn’t really started to go after Hillary yet but this snapshot of the how the general public feels today is still extremely important to keep in mind.

H/T Real Clear Politics